Why are Turkish companies borrowing abroad at the fastest pace since 2008?

The chart shows the external debt rollover ratio of Turkey's non-bank companies (12-month average). 100 means borrowing exactly as much as falls due. Above 100, companies are raising net new money abroad.

• In November 2020 the ratio fell to 69%: companies could not roll their debt and were paying it down.
• A year ago it was 152%. In August 2026 it was 181%.
• The climb has slowed in recent months but has not stopped: +3 points since May.

Why so fast? The rate gap

A lira deposit of up to one month pays 44% (gross, week of 9 October). The dollar, meanwhile, is rising against the lira at about 22% a year at the pace of the last three months. That 22-point gap makes borrowing in dollars and operating in lira look cheap, and companies are using it.

The one thing the sum depends on

External debt due within a year (by remaining maturity; all of Turkey: government, central bank, banks and companies) reached $248.1bn in July 2026, the highest since the series began in 2011. A year earlier it was $223.3bn.

Foreign-currency borrowing only looks cheap while the lira keeps weakening at today's pace. If that pace picks up, or funding abroad gets tighter, the same arithmetic runs in reverse. There is a precedent: after the 2008 peak, the 12-month ratio fell from 186% to 82% in 13 months.

Three things we are watching

1. The rollover ratio: September data is due around mid-November.
2. The monthly pace of the lira: one of the dated projections below is about it.
3. The 22 October rate decision: it steers the deposit rate, one side of the gap.

Data: CBRT EVDS (TP.ODEROLL.K4, TP.KALANVADE.K20, TP.TRYTAS.MT01), CBRT indicative exchange rate; as of 15 October 2026. The lira's pace is an InvestMuse calculation: the change in USD/TRY over three months, annualised.